The question is: how long can you keep playing? What’s missing in the “doubling system” so far is the possibility of losing everything (which is a big red flag for any gambling system). In this scenario you’re guaranteed to gain 1 chip if you keep playing.

Keep doubling until you win and then you’re back where you started, plus one shiny new chip. If you lose again, you’re down 3, so by doubling your bet again (4 chips), you might recoup your net loses and come out 1 chip ahead. That way if you win, you’ll recoup your 1 chip loss and come out 1 chip ahead. This is very intentionally negative, because on average you’re supposed lose.īut if you do lose, then on the second round you can bet 2 chips.

The amount of winnings you can expect (a mathematician would call this “the expected winnings”) is the probability of winning times how much you win, minus the probability you lose times how much you lose. Assuming you bet 1 “chip” (or whatever currency makes sense), then the first round you can either lose or gain 1 new chip. Take a simple “double or nothing” scenario like the pass line in craps, where you have a (49.3%) probability of winning. But without them, you’re screwed as much as always. With infinite funds, you will win eventually. Like so many things in life, this plan works great if you already have an infinite amount of money. The problem with it is nestled firmly inside that “eventually”. Then rinse and repeat until Musk and Bezos come begging for a handout.Īt first blush this seems like a reasonable trick. This system sounds like a clever way to beat any game: just place larger and larger bets, to cover all of your previous loses and a little more, because eventually you’ll win.

Craps don't come secondary bet payoff